1. This is a divergent market, not a recovering one

Recent weekly pricing has shown a genuine split: Group I and Group II prices in Asia have eased on improved stock levels and buyer resistance, while Group III prices — in India and globally — kept climbing to record highs. If your read on "the market" comes from a single price index or a general "base oil prices are easing" headline, you're getting an incomplete picture. The relief is real, but it's not evenly distributed.

2. The reason is specific plants, not general conditions

Group II eased partly because Hyundai Oilbank-Shell's South Korean plant completed maintenance and restarted in June, with Formosa Petrochemical also leaning into term commitments over spot sales — both add real Group II volume back to the market. Group III hasn't gotten the same relief because the facilities knocked out earlier this year — ADNOC's Ruwais plant, Bapco's Sitra refinery, and Shell's Pearl GTL facility in Qatar — are still largely offline. Pearl GTL specifically may not be back until as late as the end of 2026. More on why Group III production concentrates in a small number of facilities like these.

3. The price gap is wide enough to matter

Group III 4 cSt spot prices have been running in the $2,240-2,280/tonne range during this period — a level industry reporting describes as a record high — while conventional grades have been giving back some of their earlier gains. That gap is the practical reason a supplier's "prices are coming down" claim needs a follow-up question: coming down for which group, specifically?

4. 0W20 and 5W30 buyers shouldn't relax yet

If your product line leans on low-viscosity synthetic grades, general market-easing headlines don't apply to you the way they might to a 15W-40 or 20W-50 buyer. Group III exposure hasn't meaningfully improved, which means quotation validity, lead time, and reformulation risk for these grades deserve the same caution as a few months ago — worth checking directly with your supplier which base oil system a given product actually uses before assuming a softer quote reflects a genuinely stable formula.

5. What to actually do with this information

Ask your supplier to break down price movement by base oil group, not just quote a blended "prices are better" line. Keep inventory planning in three layers — selling stock, safety stock, and a confirmed next-order pipeline — sized with extra margin specifically for Group III-dependent SKUs, since that segment hasn't earned the same slack Group I/II has. And if a quotation on a synthetic grade looks surprisingly soft, ask directly whether the base oil source has changed rather than assuming the whole market has cooled.

For product-specific guidance on which of your SKUs carry the most Group III exposure right now, reach out to TERZO.